3
Beach Holiday
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 71
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 25/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |