4
Grande Tortugon
10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 73
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2024 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 08/02/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 07/03/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 29/03/2025 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 05/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |