1
Aurora's Doublesix
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 42
Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
200/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 6 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 6 | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/01/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 250/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |