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5

Royale Union

3yo Filly · 9-2

Ripon · Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed something like her debut form when 4 lengths third behind a couple of southern raiders at Ripon (7f) 5 days ago. Yard's juveniles continue in fine form, but she'll need to improve for the switch to sprinting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1285/0754 @ Redcar 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 12829/074projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Redcar43rd3rd0
2026-07-05Southwell57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0729/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength73%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20267th11/271%45%-0.26
29/07/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19