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2

Creative Queen

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Ripon · Weatherbys Bloodstock Pro Fillies' Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Clear best effort when getting off the mark in a novice over 6f at Yarmouth in May, making all. Disappointing in 2 handicaps since, not for the first time looking a hard ride at Carlisle last month (pulled hard/carried head awkwardly). Cheekpieces replace blinkers now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 26/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR - · 6f Std 12826/0954 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS6/0444 @ Yarmouth 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f3y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS28/0444 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 71 · 6f3y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 71 par13/054OR 715 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 75 par23/065OR 754 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 74 · 5f182y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 74 par9/074OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Carlisle47th6th+1
2026-06-23Newbury57th7th0
2026-05-13Yarmouth41st0th+1
2026-04-28Yarmouth42nd1st+1
2026-04-06Kempton46th5th+1
2025-09-26Newcastle52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/096/0428/0413/0523/069/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength38%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20252nd4/998%50%-0.48
06/04/20266th9/488%55%-0.34
28/04/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
13/05/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
23/06/20267th11/271%45%-0.26
09/07/20267th17/255%14%-0.41