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6

Boston Dan

3yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 84

Ripon · Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 5f winner at 2 yrs. Yet to match that form this season though, albeit shaping a little bit better on debut for this yard (formerly trained by the Faheys) when fourth of 7 in handicap (16/1) at Chester (6f, good to firm) 9 days ago. Others still preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 90 · 5f7y GS 133 · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 90 par3/094OR 901 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 90 · 5f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 90 par1 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 89 · 6f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 89 par11/101OR 891 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 97 · 6f2y Hvy 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 97 par2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 97 · 6f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 97 par16/042OR 971 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 95 · 5f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 92 par13/062OR 922 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 6f17y Goo 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 86 par25/073OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Chester34th4th0
2026-06-27York210th9th+1
2026-06-13York212th11th+1
2026-05-14York110th7th+2
2026-04-16Newmarket29th8th+1
2025-10-25Doncaster17th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0925/1013/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20251st1/1099%100%+0.01
19/09/202510th15/261%18%-0.42
11/10/20252nd14/126%92%+0.65
25/10/20257th9/488%0%-0.88
16/04/20269th20/10%33%+0.33
14/05/202610th25/10%0%0.00
13/06/202612th80/10%48%+0.48
27/06/202610th28/10%25%+0.25
25/07/20264th16/116%50%+0.34