Commanche Falls
9yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 91
Ripon · Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | York | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Bahrain | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Bahrain | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bahrain | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | York | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 95% | +0.79 |
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 20/09/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 94% | +0.41 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 94% | +0.26 |
| 19/02/2026 | 13th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.36 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |