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Dark Cloud Rising

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 94

Ripon · Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 3-time winner last year. Slipped in the weights and right back on song with cosy victory in 7-runner handicap at C&D in June. Couldn't get to the front after missing the kick slightly when third of 6 in handicap at Pontefract (6f, good) 27 days ago. Worth another chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 92 · 6f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 92 par11/102OR 923 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 90 · 6f16y Std 133 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 90 par3 @ Newcastle 20/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 89 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 89 par20/113OR 893 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 92 · 5f3y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 92 par7/042OR 922 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 22 · OR 90 · 6f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 90 par13/052OR 902 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 94 · 6f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 94 par7/072OR 94projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07Pontefract23rd2nd+1
2026-06-18Ripon21st0th+1
2026-05-30Carlisle30
2026-05-13York216th15th+1
2026-04-25Leicester29th8th+1
2026-04-07Pontefract210th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/109/1213/057/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/202517th16/116%11%-0.05
31/10/20255th11/271%67%-0.04
20/11/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
09/12/20255th6/168%50%-0.18
07/04/202610th6/168%25%-0.43
25/04/20269th18/15%33%+0.28
13/05/202616th40/10%29%+0.29
18/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
07/07/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29