7
Grant Wood
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 77
Ripon · Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 18th | 19th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 17th | 18th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 13/04/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 13/06/2026 | 17th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/07/2026 | 18th | 33/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |