3
Lord Roxby
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 85
Ripon · Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 23/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 09/05/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.03 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 85% | +0.30 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |