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5

Rousing Encore

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 83

Ripon · Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored twice in 2025 campaign that also saw him post several good efforts in big-field handicaps. Creditable third at Ayr on his penultimate start and was patently unsuited by a switch to front-running tactics at York last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 86 · 6f2y Hvy 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 86 par8/112OR 863 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 87 · 6f1y Std 132 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 88 · 6f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 88 par15/042OR 883 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 88 · 6f2y Goo 133 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 87 par13/052OR 873 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 86 · 5f182y Goo 131 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 18th of 21 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 140 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par13/064OR 854 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 141 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 84 par2 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 84 par25/072OR 84projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25York219th18th+1
2026-07-06Ayr43rd4th−1
2026-06-13York418th19th−1
2026-05-30Carlisle34th4th0
2026-05-13York215th14th+1
2026-05-02Doncaster35th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/112/0513/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20253rd22/10%90%+0.90
27/03/20262nd18/15%92%+0.87
15/04/20265th18/15%67%+0.61
02/05/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
13/05/202615th12/137%33%-0.04
30/05/20264th12/137%77%+0.40
13/06/202618th10/147%15%-0.32
06/07/20263rd4/179%88%+0.09
25/07/202619th40/10%10%+0.10