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4

Saint Lawrence

8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 83

Ripon · Wilmot-Smith Memorial Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Formerly smart sprinter who showed more encouragement after a breathing operation and stable switch when second at Ascot (6f) in May. Hasn't built on that either start since, only really getting going once the race was over when fifth of 7 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, good to firm) 17 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 18/04/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 99 · 6f Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/04/2025 · OR 99 par18/042OR 992 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 22nd of 28 · OR 97 · 6f GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 97 par2 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 20th of 27 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 95 par2/082OR 952 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 92 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 92 par2 @ Doncaster 14/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 90 · 6f111y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 90 par14/092OR 904 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 87 · 6f Gd 140 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 87 par3 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 84 par8/053OR 842 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 86 · 6f3y Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 85 par17/072OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Hamilton25th4th+1
2026-06-06Epsom Downs212th11th+1
2026-05-08Ascot32nd2nd0
2025-10-02Salisbury49th10th−1
2025-09-14Doncaster210th9th+1
2025-08-23York27th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0423/088/0517/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/202514th20/10%0%0.00
21/06/202522nd28/10%22%+0.22
02/08/202520th40/10%27%+0.27
23/08/20257th66/10%68%+0.68
14/09/202510th33/10%25%+0.25
02/10/20259th17/255%27%-0.28
08/05/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
06/06/202612th20/10%21%+0.21
17/07/20265th10/147%33%-0.14