1
Everyoneknowsadave
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 76
Ripon · North Yorkshire Ice Cream Championship 2026 Handicap · 1m 1f 170y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |