5
Poet's Dawn
11yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 68
Ripon · North Yorkshire Ice Cream Championship 2026 Handicap · 1m 1f 170y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |