IvyArcIvyArc
6

Amber Hamur

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 60

Ripon · Queen Ethelburga's Collegiate Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Previously with George Boughey and made a fine start for this yard when a close second at Beverley in July before going one better at Hamilton 8 days later, albeit having the run of the race and probably fortunate. Still unexposed over this trip however and could defy a 3 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 16/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/1054 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/1144 @ Lingfield 20/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/1146 @ Kempton 30/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 60 par30/036OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 58 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 58 par5/056OR 586 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 56 · 1m100y Goo 132 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 56 par3/076OR 566 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 57 · 1m68y Goo 128 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 57 par11/076OR 57projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Hamilton61st1st0
2026-07-03Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-05-05Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-03-30Kempton64th4th0
2025-11-20Lingfield45th3rd+2
2025-11-05Kempton45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1030/0311/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength67%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20254th40/10%25%+0.25
05/11/20255th22/10%50%+0.50
20/11/20255th80/10%56%+0.56
30/03/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
05/05/20266th10/382%44%-0.38
03/07/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
11/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08