7
Hey Havana
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58
Ripon · Queen Ethelburga's Collegiate Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 06/09/2025 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |