Sailor's Return
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 63
Ripon · Queen Ethelburga's Collegiate Handicap · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 7.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 14th | 9/1 | 53% | 7% | -0.45 |
| 29/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/01/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 09/07/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |