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2

Vega's Virtue

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 64

Ripon · Queen Ethelburga's Collegiate Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Both career successes have come over C&D, the first in May and the latest just over 2 weeks ago in 7-runner handicap. Her head carriage has come under question and an 8 lb rise makes things tougher but clearly can't be ruled out at this venue.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 14/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/0854 @ Ripon 25/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 5f182y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS9/0956 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 57 · 7f6y Goo 129 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 55 par17/056OR 556 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 57 · 1m53y Goo 132 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 57 par13/066OR 575 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f6y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 56 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 56 par18/076OR 56projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Ripon61st1st0
2026-07-03Doncaster58th7th+1
2026-06-13Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-05-28Ripon61st1st0
2026-05-17Ripon65th5th0
2026-05-02Doncaster67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/082/0513/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20257th150/10%14%+0.14
25/08/20255th13/266%50%-0.16
09/09/20258th15/261%22%-0.38
02/05/20267th7/163%25%-0.38
17/05/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
28/05/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
13/06/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
03/07/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
18/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14