Admiral Nelson
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |