2
Breeze The Bayou
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 24/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 09/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |