Chalon's First
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2024-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 24/09/2024 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |