1
Daredevil Doug
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 57% | -0.37 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |