8
Eileen's Desperado
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 10/11/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 18/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |