4
Heart Of An Angel
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 13/08/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 28/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |