I Just Don't No
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2024-07-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |