Big Prankster
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 09/03/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |