Cacique Abarrio
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 17/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 31/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |