Roundball Rock
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |