3
Auld Lange Syne
10yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 08/12/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/01/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |