1
Braggadocious
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 81
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 03/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 08/12/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |