Torrefactor
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 30/06/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 11/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |