6
Elliot The Dragon
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 10/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 23/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |