Gray Day
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |