3
Credit Check
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 71
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/02/2026 | 7th | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |