4
Saltmakeshersweet
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/11
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 16/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 4/11 | 98% | 0% | -0.98 |