5
Goldstriker
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 05/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 27/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |