6
Oaks Honey
10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
100%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |