IvyArcIvyArc
5

Cool Couple

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91

Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Mahoning Valley 16/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 6f 123 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 78 par16/12C8OR 78C8 @ Mahoning Valley 13/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Slo 126 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 77 parC7 @ Mahoning Valley 01/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 126 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 76 par1/02C7OR 76C8 @ Mahoning Valley 18/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 25/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m 124 · below its mark25/02/2026 · OR 79 par25/02C8OR 79C5 @ Mahoning Valley 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 6f 124 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 75 parC7 @ Mountaineer 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 82 · 6f 120 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 82 par29/04C7OR 82C5 @ Mountaineer 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 87 · 1m 120 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 87 parC5 @ Mountaineer 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 90 par10/06C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-10Mountaineer?4th4th0
2026-05-13Mountaineer?2nd2nd0
2026-04-29Mountaineer?1st3rd−2
2026-03-13Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0
2026-02-25Mahoning Valley?8th11th−3
2026-02-18Mahoning Valley?5th8th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1218/0229/0410/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength82%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
13/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
01/02/20266th5/174%0%-0.74
18/02/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
25/02/20268th6/168%0%-0.68
13/03/20262nd16/116%80%+0.64
29/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
13/05/20262nd6/492%75%-0.17
10/06/20264th11/486%57%-0.28