1
Mr. Bogan
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Charles Town | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 15/8 | 90% | 11% | -0.79 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |