4
Phreddie Mac
5yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 98
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-02-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-01-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2024-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2024-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 10/05/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 07/09/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 10/10/2024 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/11/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 05/01/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 03/02/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 28/03/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |