3
Sadie's Silver Kid
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |