2
Trouble In Motown
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 12/11/2024 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/04/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 23/06/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |