3
Destiny's Tot
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 27
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength71%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 20/12/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |