6
Oak Mirna
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 27
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 12/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 30/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |