4
Trustthefact
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 104
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
49%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |