Twotwentyfivesouth
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 97
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 30/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |