9
Arnaga
4yo Filly · 8-8
Vichy · Prix Serge Maillard Stakes · 6f 211y
#10
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 12.4 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 15th | 16th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Deauville | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 07/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 13/12/2025 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/12/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 08/05/2026 | 15th | 125/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 17/05/2026 | 15th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |