4
National Service
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 105
Vichy · Prix Serge Maillard Stakes · 6f 211y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength38%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-01-19 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Marseille | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-11-24 | Marseille | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-10-27 | Chantilly | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-10-14 | Chantilly | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/07/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2025 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 24% | -0.03 |
| 14/10/2025 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 7% | -0.19 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 13/8 | 91% | 22% | -0.69 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 21/12/2025 | 6th | 8/11 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 19/01/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 11% | -0.73 |
| 13/07/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |