2
Nova Hope
5yo Filly · 9-1
Vichy · Prix Serge Maillard Stakes · 6f 211y
#2
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 27/01/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 21/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 47% | -0.09 |