10
Secret Wood
4yo Filly · 8-8
Vichy · Prix Serge Maillard Stakes · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-01-02 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Deauville | ? | 14th | 11th | +2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Fontainebleau | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 19/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.65 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 13/12/2025 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/01/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 14/05/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |